Broncos Seeking Christmas Eve Miracle in San Diego
The Broncos seek revenge for a 41-3 loss to the Chargers at Invesco Field at Mile High back on Oct. 7.
Visions of their 10th win will be dancing in the heads of the San Diego Chargers on Monday night, when Norv Turner’s club hosts the division rival Denver Broncos in a Christmas Eve showdown.
San Diego has been one of the league’s hottest teams over the past month, winning four straight games, including last Sunday’s 51-14 demolition of the Detroit Lions. The blowout, coupled with a loss by the Broncos to Houston on Thursday night, gave the Chargers their second consecutive AFC West title and also put the Bolts on the inside track for the all-important No. 3 seed in the playoffs.
In the event of a First-Round win, the team with the No. 3 seed would avoid the top-seeded New England Patriots until the AFC Championship round, and would instead play No. 2 Indianapolis in the climate-controlled RCA Dome.
The Chargers enter Monday’s contest a half-game behind Pittsburgh for the third spot in the conference, but would reclaim the No. 3 seed with a win thanks to a superior AFC record to that of the Steelers.
What’s more, San Diego will have swept a home-and-home against Denver for the second straight year, which would mark the franchise’s first back-to-back sweeps of their longtime AFC West cohort since 1967-68.
The Broncos will be trying to avoid that historic indignity, and will also be vying to exact revenge for a 41-3 loss to the Chargers at Invesco Field at Mile High back on Oct. 7.
The loss was Denver’s worst since losing to New Orleans by a 42-0 count in 1988, and was the worst home loss for the franchise since falling 56-10 to the Chiefs in 1966.
The Broncos were eliminated from playoff contention with last week’s 31-13 defeat in Houston, and are one setback away from just their second losing season since Mike Shanahan took over head coaching duties in 1995.
SERIES HISTORY
The Broncos lead the all-time series with San Diego, 52-42-1, but have lost three in a row in the series. As mentioned, the Chargers were 41-3 winners at Invesco Field at Mile High in Week 5, and swept last season’s home-and-home with their AFC West rival. The Bolts destroyed the Broncos by a 48-20 margin at Qualcomm Stadium in Week 14 of last year. Denver, which as noted has not been swept by San Diego in back-to-back seasons since 1967-68, had won 14 of the previous 18 meetings over the Bolts prior to 2006. The Broncos last won in San Diego in 2005.
Shanahan is 19-9 in his career against San Diego, including a 3-0 mark while head coach of Oakland in 1988-89. The Chargers’ Turner is 2-5 against both Shanahan and the Broncos, with two of the losses dating to his tenure with Washington (1994-2000) and three coming while he was with Oakland (2004-05).
WHEN THE BRONCOS HAVE THE BALL
The once-vaunted Denver running game has been a major disappointment this season, with injuries on the offensive line and in the backfield, as well as the off-the-field saga of Travis Henry (680 rushing yards, 4 TD) helping contribute to a sub-standard rank of eighth in NFL rushing offense (124.1 yards per game) with a scant 10 ground touchdowns. Barring a major outburst from Henry or Selvin Young (603 rushing yards, 1 TD, 30 receptions) over the final two games, Denver will not have a 1,000-yard rusher for the first time since 2001. The passing game has also been inconsistent, though the connection between quarterback Jay Cutler (3096 passing yards, 18 TD, 12 INT) and wideout Brandon Marshall (86 receptions, 6 TD) has been a strong one all season. Marshall has 21 receptions for 222 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games combined. Tight end Tony Scheffler (40 receptions, 4 TD) has also emerged as a force in the passing game, and will have to help make up for the likely absence of wideout Brandon Stokley (40 receptions, 5 TD), who could miss the rest of the year with a knee problem. The Denver line allowed five sacks of Cutler in Houston last week, and must do a better job in pass protection.
The Broncos will look to avoid the major mistake against San Diego, which is easier said than done when facing a team that leads the NFL in interceptions (27), takeaways (41), and is tied with New England for the league lead in turnover margin (+19). Pro Bowl-bound cornerback Antonio Cromartie (33 tackles) set a franchise record with his NFL-best 10th interception of the year last week, one of five picks the Chargers had off of the Lions’ Jon Kitna. Denver could catch something of a break if linebacker Shawne Merriman (knee) and defensive end Luis Castillo (ankle), both of whom are regarded as highly questionable, are forced to miss another game. San Diego did not have a sack of Kitna last week, though Shaun Phillips (61 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 2 INT), the club’s best pass rusher in the absence of Merriman, did have an interception. The run-stopping corps led by Pro Bowl nose tackle Jamal Williams (39 tackles) and inside linebackers Stephen Cooper (92 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) and Matt Wilhelm (82 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack), was not tested much by a Lions team that ran the football only nine times in Week 15. Cooper and Wilhelm both had INTs in the game, however. The Chargers are 16th in the league against the run (107 yards per game).
WHEN THE CHARGERS HAVE THE BALL
Given the way they ran the football last week, the way Denver has stopped the run this year, and the limitations of injury-hobbled quarterback Philip Rivers, you can expect San Diego to offer the Broncos a heavy dose of LaDainian Tomlinson (1311 rushing yards, 57 receptions, 16 TD) on Monday. Tomlinson, who carried 15 times for 116 yards and two touchdowns before exiting early in the blowout of Detroit, is well within range of becoming the NFL’s first back-to-back rushing champion since Edgerrin James in 1999-2000. Tomlinson’s backup, Michael Turner (263 rushing yards, 1 TD), also left the Lions contest prematurely due to a shoulder injury, and is considered questionable. If he can’t go, the change-of-pace back will again be Darren Sproles (127 rushing yards, 2 TD), who rushed 25 times for 122 yards and two touchdowns in his finest day as a pro last Sunday. Rivers (2828 passing yards, 18 TD, 15 INT) is attempting to play through a sprained knee ligament, and when he drops back will look to top targets Antonio Gates (68 receptions, 9 TD), Chris Chambers (28 receptions, 2 TD), and Vincent Jackson (35 receptions, 3 TD). Chambers had four catches for a team-best 69 yards against the Lions. San Diego is seventh in the league in rushing offense (126.6 yards per game), and 22nd in passing (191.8 yards per game).
Stopping the run has been the Broncos’ Achilles heel all season long, and Denver won’t be long for this contest if they defend the ground game as poorly as they did against San Diego in Week 5. In that game, four Chargers running backs carried for a combined 219 yards on 33 carries (6.6 yards per attempt), including 147 and a touchdown on just 10 totes for Turner. An ever-rotating interior line is likely to include Josh Mallard (9 tackles, 1 sack) and Alvin McKinley (13 tackles, 2 sacks) this week, with linebackers D.J. Williams (121 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), Nate Webster (80 tackles), and Ian Gold (72 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) attempting to make plays behind them. The Broncos secondary remains a strength, with cornerbacks Champ Bailey (70 tackles, 3 INT) and Dre’ Bly (41 tackles, 5 INT, 1 sack) along with safeties John Lynch (45 tackles, 1 sack) and Hamza Abdullah (44 tackles) all ranking as capable talents. Bly had the team’s only interception of Texans QB Sage Rosenfels last Thursday. Second-year-end Elvis Dumervil (34 tackles, 11 sacks, 1 INT) has been the club’s only consistent pass rusher this year. The Broncos rank 29th in the NFL against the run (140.2 yards per game), and sixth against the pass (196.2 yards per game).
FANTASY FOCUS
After being regarded by some as a disappointment given his No. 1 overall status in many fantasy leagues, Tomlinson has perhaps been the most consistent point producer in the NFL over the past month or so. He remains a must-start, as does tight end Gates and the ball-hawking San Diego secondary. Probably best to sit Rivers and Chambers against a Denver defense that defends the pass pretty well.
For the Broncos, Marshall has become a No. 1 fantasy receiver, Cutler an above-average quarterback option, and Scheffler a decent tight end choice. More risky are Denver running backs Henry and Young, since it’s hard to tell how much or how well either will be running from week to week.
Popularity: 65% [?]
